Spiderweb’s Shadow: Azerbaijan’s Energy Infrastructure and the Emerging Crisis in Eurasian Security

Spiderweb’s Shadow: Azerbaijan’s Energy Infrastructure and the Emerging Crisis in Eurasian Security

Threats to critical energy infrastructure posed by drone warfare and its implications for Azerbaijan and the region

2026

Ramiz Ahmadzada

Operation Spiderweb in June 2025 demonstrated the devastating efficacy of low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) against high-value strategic targets in 21st-century warfare (Eslami et al., 2026). The operation, alongside sustained infrastructure campaigns during the Russo-Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts, exposed a gap in contemporary defence doctrines; existing systems designed for conventional threats are ill-equipped to counter the low-cost, algorithmic nature of modern drone warfare. This research employs a structured, focused comparative case study of conflicts in Karabakh, Ukraine, and the Middle East using the Most Different Systems Design methodology to detect common patterns of infrastructure vulnerability. Data sources include open-source intelligence (OSINT), IMF and World Bank economic projections, policy documents, and academic literature, and the study applies these findings to Azerbaijan's critical energy infrastructure, to assess economic and geopolitical risks. Since Azerbaijan’s economic activity remains heavily dependent on a highly concentrated cluster of fossil fuel facilities around the Absheron Peninsula, like the Sangachal Terminal, which handles all of Azerbaijan's oil and gas exports (Tavana et al., 2012), the findings indicate that a sustained, targeted drone campaign would not only paralyse the domestic Azerbaijani economy and exhaust sovereign reserves but also trigger significant trade and energy price volatility across Eurasian markets. To address this vulnerability, the following study proposes a layered and cost-optimised defensive model by integrating multi-sensor detection, tiered kinetic and non-kinetic engagement, and comprehensive doctrinal coordination and reform. Together, this framework offers an extensive and adaptable solution to protect fixed critical infrastructure against algorithmic asymmetry, which is rapidly becoming a defining challenge for Eurasian geopolitics and global energy security.

war, warfare, drones, military technology, geopolitics, Azerbaijan, energy, energy infrastructure, economics of war, security, conflict, politics, critical infrastructure, Operation Spiderweb, drone warfare, defence